The March Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index from ITS Logistics reports that renewed geopolitical tensions, increased cargo theft, and proposed driver regulations are destabilizing U.S. port and rail freight flows. Released on March 5, 2026, the findings attribute disruptions to shifts in tariff policies, Middle Eastern conflicts, and heightened inland security risks, collectively impeding trade volumes that had shown signs of stabilization.
Background
U.S. container imports saw month-over-month growth in January, indicating tentative normalization within the freight industry. However, import levels remain below those of 2025, with new geopolitical strains threatening progress. Recent disruptions include the reintroduction of U.S. tariffs and Middle Eastern maritime conflicts, forcing carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope and raising insurance premiums. Inland, organized theft is rising along major rail corridors in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Memphis. Pending legislation on driver eligibility and licensing may further restrict available capacity.
Details
According to the index, U.S. container imports reached 2,318,722 TEUs in January, a 4.1% increase from December but 6.8% below January 2025. Imports from China rose 9.3% month-over-month yet remain 22.7% lower year-over-year. Meanwhile, imports from India, Vietnam, and Thailand are rising as companies adjust sourcing strategies.
ITS Logistics Vice President of Global Supply Chain, Paul Brashier, noted that post-holiday volume surges, severe weather, geopolitical uncertainty, cargo theft, and trucking capacity exits are straining networks across regions.
Trade dynamics are under further strain following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against prior IEEPA tariffs. In response, a uniform 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act took effect February 24 and is expected to increase to 15%, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Though import volumes from China have fallen, sourcing is increasing from Southeast Asia. Low container booking rates are causing delays in contract finalization by shippers and carriers.
Security risks have intensified, with BSI Consulting identifying rail container theft hotspots near Los Angeles, Chicago, and Memphis. Proposed legislation, "Dalilah's Law," would restrict driver eligibility to U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, or specific visa holders, require CDL testing in English, and mandate recertification within 180 days, potentially reducing the available driver pool and pushing rates higher.
Brashier stated that capacity reductions, rising costs, and ongoing market volatility are expected to drive up inland transportation rates, particularly among smaller providers.
Outlook
Industry participants await further details on tariff adjustments and the stabilization of geopolitical disruptions. Legislative decisions regarding driver qualifications are likely to impact inland trucking capacity and costs. Persistent rail corridor theft remains a significant concern for supply chain resilience and operational planning.
